Team Europe Picks By The Numbers
At the time of writing, the 2025 Ryder Cup rankings for Team Europe are starting to take shape. Captain Luke Donald and his team will be poring over the data, based mainly on stroke play, to try and find out who is on form, who can play with whom and who will suit the course.
However, using ratings from Match Play World Golf Rankings we can compare players on how many points they win per game, where anything over 0.500 is good, 0.550 very good and over 0.600 exceptional.
At present the six automatic qualifiers are Rory McIlory, Robert MacIntyre, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry and Sepp Straka.
The last two might need to hold on to their automatic places as their overall match play records of 0.349 Points Per Match from 43 games for Shane, and 0.385 from 13 games for Sepp, are nothing to write home about. Their form this year is good and their foursome and four-ball records are decent, but they both have poor singles records across all match play events. Lowry’s team record with Rory in New Orleans and Italian car parks may count in his favour.
Potential Europe Ryder Cup Picks
Currently outside the automatic places, but surely getting a pick are Justin Rose at 0.596 Points Per Match from 26 Ryder Cup games and Jon Rahm at 0.625 from 12 games.
Given the likely welcome in the USA, Donald has already indicated that he will lean towards experience, so there may not be many rookies on this European Team, if any. So who would challenge for the remaining four picks?
Victor Hovland
Ryder Cup 0.450, Career 0.447 Points Per Match
Not a great record but having a decent year and with 10 Ryder Cup games under his belt he is back in form at the right time.
Ludvig Åberg
Ryder Cup 0.500, Career 0.500 Points Per Match
The golden boy of European golf who made a great impact on his Ryder Cup debut in 2023 shortly after turning pro. Has a positive record for one event, but so far in 2025 has yet to catch fire. Class is permanent and with one eye on the future Luke should place his faith in him again.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Ryder Cup 0.125, Career 0.413 Points Per Match
Major champion, three Ryder Cups and in form in 2025, so surely an obvious pick? However, he has yet to win a Ryder Cup foursomes or singles and only 11 wins from 28 singles matches across all events is not what you might expect from a former US Amateur champion. Would raise eyebrows if not picked as he has the experience, but by the numbers it might not be such a surprise.
Rasmus Højgaard
Ryder Cup NA, Career 0.125 Points Per Match
Currently just outside the automatic places and with only a Team Cup experience on his side, he may need to make his way into the automatic places to make the plane to Bethpage.
Matt Wallace
Ryder Cup NA, Career 0.464 Points Per Match
If there is to be a rookie on the team this year then Matt Wallace could be it. A good record in foursomes with Justin Rose at the Team Cup, he has team match play experience from 14 games. Is a confident character who should not be fazed by the partisan crowd.
Thomas Detry
Ryder Cup NA, Career 0.500 Points Per Match
Another major contender for a rookie pick and Belgians have done well for Team Europe. Won on the PGA Tour in 2025 and regularly a contender since. Has only played professional match play in the Team Cup where he won half his games. If he has a strong FedEx Cup and Luke thinks he has the temperament, then don’t be surprised if he goes.
Aaron Rai
Ryder Cup NA, Career 0.625 Points Per Match
Rai might be the dark horse pick as this determined English golfer has steadily worked his way up the ladder of professional golf. With wins on the PGA Tour and a Rolex event on the DP World Tour, combined with a winning record in the Team Cup on debut. If there is to be a rookie, then Aaron Rai looks a strong candidate.
Sergio Garcia
Ryder Cup 0.633, Career 0.587 Points Per Match
Leading points scorer in the Ryder Cup, heartbeat of the team and having a good year with a win on LIV Golf in 2025. He definitely has the experience that Donald may need and is the Captain’s favourite partner. Phenomenal record in four-ball and foursomes of 0.688 from 35 games, so it should not be a surprise if he gets brought back into the fold.
Probable Picks: Rose, Rahm, Hovland, Åberg, Fitzpatrick, Detry
By The Numbers Picks: Rose, Rahm, Hovland, Åberg, Rai, Garcia
